A recovery interrupted by higher component costs

The global personal-computer market returned to decline in the second quarter of 2026, ending five consecutive quarters of year-on-year shipment growth. Counterpoint Research estimates that 65 million PCs were shipped worldwide between April and June, 4% fewer than in the same period of 2025.

The distinction between shipments and retail sales matters. Shipment figures measure devices sent into distribution channels and to customers, rather than every machine ultimately bought by an end user. Still, they are an important early indication of both manufacturer production plans and demand conditions. The second-quarter result suggests that a replacement cycle supported by operating-system migrations and new AI-capable machines has been overtaken, at least temporarily, by a sharp rise in component costs.

Memory has become the central pressure point. PC makers have had to compete for DRAM and storage supply while suppliers direct capacity towards higher-margin server and AI infrastructure products. Higher contract prices increase the bill of materials for every notebook and desktop, leaving manufacturers with limited options: absorb the cost and accept lower margins, raise retail prices, reduce entry-level specifications, or favour premium systems where prices are easier to defend.

Market leaders decline, but retain their positions

Lenovo remained the largest PC supplier, with an estimated 25.6% global shipment share. Its shipments were down 2% year on year to 16.6 million units, a comparatively modest fall that points to the advantage of scale and established component procurement relationships.

HP recorded the steepest decline among the three largest vendors, with shipments down 8%. Dell’s shipments fell 6%. Both companies retain substantial exposure to corporate customers, which has provided more resilience than the consumer market. Businesses continue to replace older machines as software-support requirements change and as organisations assess the potential value of local AI features.

However, commercial demand has not been sufficient to offset weakness in price-sensitive consumer categories. A basic laptop is particularly exposed when memory and storage inflation drives up the price of a product that customers may view as interchangeable. Consumers can postpone a replacement, choose refurbished equipment or keep an existing computer in service for longer. That makes lower-cost configurations the first part of the market to weaken when component prices rise.

The top five suppliers accounted for about 78% of global shipments in the quarter, underlining the concentration of the industry. In a constrained-supply environment, larger manufacturers can generally secure allocation more effectively and manage inventories across a wider portfolio. Smaller vendors face more difficulty competing for supply and have less room to absorb cost shocks.

Apple and ASUS move against the market

Apple was the strongest performer among the major suppliers. Its PC shipments rose 13% year on year, lifting its estimated market share to 10.5% from 8.9% a year earlier. Counterpoint attributed the improvement in part to the launch of its lower-priced MacBook Neo, which broadened the company’s reach even as the wider market cooled.

Apple’s result illustrates how product positioning can matter as much as the direction of the overall market. A differentiated ecosystem, a relatively concentrated product range and pricing power can help limit the impact of a component cycle. But the benefit is not unlimited: rising input costs have also prompted price adjustments, showing that even premium suppliers cannot entirely escape the memory squeeze.

ASUS increased shipments by 4%, taking an estimated 7.4% market share. Its growth was smaller than Apple’s but significant because it came from a Windows-focused vendor operating in the most crowded part of the PC industry. The company has been broadening its portfolio of AI-oriented notebooks and creator systems, an approach that may be helping it attract buyers willing to pay more for performance and on-device capabilities.

These gains should not be read as evidence that the market is broadly healthy. They show that individual suppliers can grow during a downturn by taking share, launching products at the right price points or serving more resilient customer segments. In this quarter, Apple and ASUS expanded while the market itself contracted.

A shift from volume towards value

The likely result of sustained memory inflation is a market that prioritises revenue and margins over unit growth. Vendors may sell fewer devices but generate more value per machine as average selling prices rise and the mix shifts towards better-equipped products. That outcome can look positive in financial results while still making PCs less accessible to households, schools and smaller businesses.

The near-term outlook depends heavily on memory availability and pricing. TrendForce has reported substantial increases in DRAM and NAND contract prices during the first half of 2026, driven by AI and data-centre demand as well as tight supply. If those costs remain elevated, manufacturers are likely to continue increasing prices, revising configurations and directing scarce components towards higher-margin systems.

Corporate replacement demand offers an important counterweight. Organisations still have reasons to refresh hardware, including software migrations, security requirements and AI workloads. Yet consumer demand is likely to remain more fragile until component costs ease. The second quarter therefore marks not simply a weaker shipment number, but a change in the market’s composition: fewer low-cost PCs, more emphasis on premium devices, and a wider advantage for vendors able to secure supply and explain why their products merit a higher price.

Sources